NHMRC Research Fellow
School of Population Health University of New South Wales

email: alexandra.hogan@unsw.edu.au
twitter: @alexandrabh
university profile: www.research.unsw.edu.au/people/alexandra-hogan

Funding: NHMRC Investigator Grant Emerging Leader 1

Research activities

I work on mathematical models of infectious diseases, focussed on the public health impact of new vaccines. The focus of my current research is to develop dynamic models to help inform longer term planning of ongoing COVID-19 vaccination programs in Australia and the broader region. I also work on models for for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission and vaccination, to inform target product profiles for RSV vaccines.

These include estimating the impact of future vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease, and modelling global dose allocation strategies. My research has informed international vaccine policy guidance.

I have previously worked on estimating the public health impact of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine, supporting World Health Organization decision-making, and on modelling second-generation malaria vaccines in malaria endemic areas.

I am a member of the World Health Organization Immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC). I hold a visiting position at Imperial College London, within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis. I completed my PhD (2017) at the Research School of Population Health at the Australian National University, under the supervision of Assoc Prof Kathryn Glass, and the late Prof Geoff Mercer. I have a BSc (Honours I, Applied Mathematics, 2009) from the University of Sydney.



  1. Le TP, Abell I, Comway E, … Hogan AB, … (2023). Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID-19 epidemic waves. medRxiv preprint. DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.12.23287174.

  2. Barnsley G, Olivera Mesa O, Hogan AB, … (2023). Impact of 100 Days Vaccination Mission on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modelling Study. SSRN Preprint. Access here.

Journal articles

  1. Bents S, Viboud C, Grenfell B, Hogan AB, Tempia S, von Gottber A, Moyes J, Walaza S, Cohen C, Baker R (2023). The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on future respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. DOI: 10.1111/irv.13229.

  2. Hogan AB, Wu SL, Toor J, …, Ghani AC (2023). Long-term vaccination strategies to mitigate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: A modelling study. PLoS Medicine. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004195.

  3. Hogan AB,… (2023). Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach. Nature Communications 14. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39736-3.

  4. Imai N, …, Hogan AB, … (2023). Quantifying the effect of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study. DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00337-1.

  5. Watson OJ, …, Hogan AB, … (2022). Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases. 22(9). DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6.

  6. Thompson HA, Hogan AB, … (2022). Seasonal use case for the RTS, S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Global Health. 10(12). DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00416-8.

  7. Haw, DJ, Forchini G, Doohan P, …, Hogan AB, … Hauck KD (2022). Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS. Nature Computational Science. DOI: 10.1038/s43588-022-00233-0.

  8. Olivera-Mesa D, Hogan AB, Watson OJ, Charles GD, Hauck K, Ghani AC, Winskill P (2022). Modelling the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Communications Medicine. DOI: 10.1038/s43856-022-00075-x.

  9. Gebremedhin AT, Hogan AB, Blyth CC, Glass K, Moore HC (2021). Developing a prediction model to estimate the true burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in hospitalised children in Western Australia. Scientific Reports. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-04080-3.

  10. Imai N, Hogan AB, Williams L, … (2021). Interpreting estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine efficacy and effectiveness to inform simulation studies of vaccine impact: a systematic review. Wellcome Open Research. DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16992.1.

  11. Unwin HJT, Mwandigha L, Winskill P, Ghani AC, Hogan AB (2021). Analysis of the potential for a malaria vaccine to reduce gaps in malaria intervention coverage. Malaria Journal. 20(438) DOI: 10.1186/s12936-021-03966-x.

  12. Skarp J, Downey LE, …, Hogan AB, …Hauck K (2021). A Systematic Review of the Costs Relating to Non-pharmaceutical Interventions Against Infectious Disease Outbreaks. Appled Health Economics and Health Policy. DOI: 10.1007/s40258-021-00659-z.

  13. Winskill P, Hogan AB, Thwing J et al (2021). Health inequities and clustering of fever, acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and wasting in children under five in low- and middle-income countries: a Demographic and Health Surveys analysis. BMC Medicine. DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-02018-0.

  14. Prasad N, Read JM, …, Hogan AB (2021). Modelling the impact of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine and immunoprophylaxis strategies in New Zealand. Vaccine. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.05.100.

  15. Hogan AB^, Winskill P^, Watson OJ et al (2021). Within-country age-based prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: mathematical modelling analysis. Vaccine. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.04.002. ^contributed equally

  16. Hogan AB, Winskill P, Ghani AC (2020). Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study. PLoS Medicine. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003377.

  17. Campbell PT, Geard NG, Hogan AB (2020) Modelling the household-level impact of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in a high-income setting. BMC Medicine. 18(319) 1–11. DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01783-8.

  18. Thompson HA, Hogan AB, Walker PTG et al (2020). Modelling the roles of antibody titre and avidity in protection from Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection following RTS,S/AS01 vaccination. Vaccine. 38(47) 7498–7507. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.09.069.

  19. Sherrard-Smith E^, Hogan AB^, Hamlet A^, Watson OJ^, Whittaker C^ et al (2020). The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa. Nature Medicine. 26 1411–1416. DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-1025-y.

  20. Hogan AB^, Jewell BL^, Sherrard-Smith E^, Vesga JF^, Watson OJ^, Whittaker C^ et al (2020) Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study. The Lancet Global Health. DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30288-6.
    ^contributed equally
    Also available as a Biomedical Science Journal for Kids and Teens article.

  21. Hogan AB, Winskill P, Verity R, Griffin JT & Ghani AC (2018) Modelling population-level impact to inform target product profiles for childhood malaria vaccines. BMC Medicine. 16(109). 1-11. DOI: 10.1186/s12916-018-1095-6.

  22. Hogan AB, Campbell PT, Blyth CC, Lim FJ, Fathima P, Davis S, Moore HC & Glass K (2017) Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study. Vaccine. 35 6172–6179. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.09.043.

  23. Hogan AB & Myerscough MR (2017) A model for the spread of an invasive weed, Tradescantia fluminensis. The Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 1-17. DOI: 10.1007/s11538-017-0280-7.

  24. Smith RJ, Hogan AB & Mercer GN (2017) Unexpected infection spikes in a model of respiratory syncytial virus vaccination. Vaccines. 5(12) 1-15. DOI: 10.3390/vaccines5020012.

  25. Hogan AB, Glass K Anderssen RS (2017) Complex demodulation: a novel time series analysis method for seasonal infectious diseases. The ANZIAM Journal. DOI: 10.1017/S1446181116000377.

  26. Hogan AB, Anderssen RS, Davis S, Moore HC, Lim FJ, Fathima P & Glass K (2016) Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia. Epidemics. 16 49-55. DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.001.

  27. Hogan AB, Glass K, Moore HC & Anderssen RS (2016) Exploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children. Theoretical Population Biology. 110 78-85. DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2016.04.003.

  28. Hogan AB, Glass K, Moore HC & Anderssen RS (2015) Age structures in mathematical models for infectious diseases, with a case study of respiratory syncytial virus. Proceedings of the Forum of Mathematics for Industry 2014. Springer. 105-116. DOI: 10.1007/978-4-431-55342-7.

  29. Moore HC, Jacoby P, Hogan AB, Blyth CC & Mercer GN (2014) Modelling the seasonal epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus in young children. PLOS ONE. 9(6) e100422. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0100422.

  30. Hogan AB, Mercer GN, Glass K & Moore HC (2013) Modelling the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus in young children. Proceedings of the 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Adelaide, Australia, pp 338-344. ISBN 978-0-9872143-2-4.


  1. Ferguson NM, Ghani AC, Cori A, Hogan AB, Hinsley W, Volz E (2021) Report 49: Growth, population distribution and immune escape of Omicron in England. Imperial College London (16-12-2021). DOI: 10.25561/93038.

  2. Hogan AB, Wu SL, Doohan P, Watson OJ, Winskill P, Charles G, Barnsley G, Riley EM, Khoury DS, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC (2021) Report 48: The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant. Imperial College London (16-12-2021). DOI: 10.25561/93034.

  3. Sonabend R, Whittles LK, …, Hogan AB, … Ferguson NM (2021). Evaluating the Roadmap out of Lockdown: Step 3. Report to the UK Government. Available here.

  4. Olivera-Mesa D, Hogan AB, Watson OJ, Charles GD, Hauck K, Ghani AC, Winskill P (2021) Report 43: Quantifying the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Imperial College London (). DOI: 10.25561/87096 .

  5. Hogan AB^, Winskill P^, Watson OJ, et al (2020) Report 33: Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine. Imperial College London (25-09-2020). DOI: 10.25561/82822. ^contributed equally

  6. Hogan AB^, Jewell BL^, Sherrard-Smith E^, Vesga JF^, Watson OJ^, Whittaker C^ et al (2020) Report 19: The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Imperial College London (01-05-2020). DOI: 10.25561/78670.
    ^contributed equally

  7. Sherrard-Smith E^, Hogan AB^, Hamlet A^, Watson OJ^, Whittaker C^ et al (2020) Report 18: The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa. Imperial College London (01-05-2020). DOI: 10.25561/78668.
    ^contributed equally

  8. Wakayama M, Hogan AB & Anderssen RS (2015) The formation and launch of the Asia Pacific Consortium of Mathematics for Industry (APCMfI). Proceedings of the Forum of Mathematics for Industry 2014. Springer. 143-147. DOI: 10.1007/978-4-431-55342-7.

Edited volumes

Zapasnik J & Hogan AB (editors) (2014) The ANU Undergraduate Research Journal. Volume 6. ANU Press, Canberra. ISSN (online): 1837-2872.


Hogan AB (2017), Mathematical models for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission. PhD thesis, Australian National University. DOI: 10.25911/5d70ec93b3047.


Code is available via GitHub. All code is open source and licensed under the MIT License.

Outreach and other work

Featured in Cosmos magazine’s article “Born to Ruler?” (December 2023 issue).

Invited talks for undergraduate and high school maths and science students.

Working Group for the Effects of COVID-19 on HIV, TB and Malaria (2020) What is the impact of COVID-19 on other diseases? Biomedical Science Journal for Kids and Teens. Available at https://sciencejournalforkids.org/articles/what-is-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-other-diseases/.

My video for Women in Mathematics Day 2020, for the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS). A compilation of messages from many women in mathematics is here.

Blog post for the Thesis Whisperer, published in May 2017