NHMRC Research Fellow
School of Population Health
University of New South Wales
email: alexandra.hogan@unsw.edu.au
twitter: @alexandrabh
university profile:
www.research.unsw.edu.au/people/alexandrahogan
www.imperial.ac.uk/people/a.hogan
Funding: NHMRC Investigator Grant Emerging Leader 1
Research activities
I work on mathematical models of infectious diseases, focussed on the public health impact of new vaccines. The focus of my current research is to develop dynamic models to help inform longer term planning of ongoing COVID19 vaccination programs in Australia and the broader region. I also work on models for for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission and vaccination, to inform target product profiles for RSV vaccines.
These include estimating the impact of future vaccines for SARSCoV2 infection and COVID19 disease, and modelling global dose allocation strategies. My research has informed international vaccine policy guidance.
I have previously worked on estimating the public health impact of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine, supporting World Health Organization decisionmaking, and on modelling secondgeneration malaria vaccines in malaria endemic areas.
I am a member of the World Health Organization Immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee (IVIRAC). I hold a visiting position at Imperial College London, within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis. I completed my PhD (2017) at the Research School of Population Health at the Australian National University, under the supervision of Assoc Prof Kathryn Glass, and the late Prof Geoff Mercer. I have a BSc (Honours I, Applied Mathematics, 2009) from the University of Sydney.
Publications
Preprints

Le TP, Abell I, Comway E, … Hogan AB, … (2023). Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID19 epidemic waves. medRxiv preprint. DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.12.23287174.

Barnsley G, Olivera Mesa O, Hogan AB, … (2023). Impact of 100 Days Vaccination Mission on COVID19: A Mathematical Modelling Study. SSRN Preprint. Access here.
Journal articles

Bents S, Viboud C, Grenfell B, Hogan AB, Tempia S, von Gottber A, Moyes J, Walaza S, Cohen C, Baker R (2023). The impact of COVID19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on future respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. DOI: 10.1111/irv.13229.

Hogan AB, Wu SL, Toor J, …, Ghani AC (2023). Longterm vaccination strategies to mitigate the impact of SARSCoV2 transmission: A modelling study. PLoS Medicine. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004195.

Hogan AB,… (2023). Estimating longterm vaccine effectiveness against SARSCoV2 variants: a modelbased approach. Nature Communications 14. DOI: 10.1038/s41467023397363.

Imai N, …, Hogan AB, … (2023). Quantifying the effect of delaying the second COVID19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study. DOI: 10.1016/S24682667(22)003371.

Watson OJ, …, Hogan AB, … (2022). Global impact of the first year of COVID19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases. 22(9). DOI: 10.1016/S14733099(22)003206.

Thompson HA, Hogan AB, … (2022). Seasonal use case for the RTS, S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Global Health. 10(12). DOI: 10.1016/S2214109X(22)004168.

Haw, DJ, Forchini G, Doohan P, …, Hogan AB, … Hauck KD (2022). Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARSCoV2 transmission using DAEDALUS. Nature Computational Science. DOI: 10.1038/s43588022002330.

OliveraMesa D, Hogan AB, Watson OJ, Charles GD, Hauck K, Ghani AC, Winskill P (2022). Modelling the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for NonPharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID19 pandemic. Communications Medicine. DOI: 10.1038/s4385602200075x.

Gebremedhin AT, Hogan AB, Blyth CC, Glass K, Moore HC (2021). Developing a prediction model to estimate the true burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in hospitalised children in Western Australia. Scientific Reports. DOI: 10.1038/s41598021040803.

Imai N, Hogan AB, Williams L, … (2021). Interpreting estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) vaccine efficacy and effectiveness to inform simulation studies of vaccine impact: a systematic review. Wellcome Open Research. DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16992.1.

Unwin HJT, Mwandigha L, Winskill P, Ghani AC, Hogan AB (2021). Analysis of the potential for a malaria vaccine to reduce gaps in malaria intervention coverage. Malaria Journal. 20(438) DOI: 10.1186/s1293602103966x.

Skarp J, Downey LE, …, Hogan AB, …Hauck K (2021). A Systematic Review of the Costs Relating to Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Against Infectious Disease Outbreaks. Appled Health Economics and Health Policy. DOI: 10.1007/s4025802100659z.

Winskill P, Hogan AB, Thwing J et al (2021). Health inequities and clustering of fever, acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and wasting in children under five in low and middleincome countries: a Demographic and Health Surveys analysis. BMC Medicine. DOI: 10.1186/s12916021020180.

Prasad N, Read JM, …, Hogan AB (2021). Modelling the impact of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine and immunoprophylaxis strategies in New Zealand. Vaccine. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.05.100.

Hogan AB^, Winskill P^, Watson OJ et al (2021). Withincountry agebased prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARSCoV2: mathematical modelling analysis. Vaccine. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.04.002. ^contributed equally

Hogan AB, Winskill P, Ghani AC (2020). Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in subSaharan Africa: A modelling study. PLoS Medicine. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003377.

Campbell PT, Geard NG, Hogan AB (2020) Modelling the householdlevel impact of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in a highincome setting. BMC Medicine. 18(319) 1–11. DOI: 10.1186/s12916020017838.

Thompson HA, Hogan AB, Walker PTG et al (2020). Modelling the roles of antibody titre and avidity in protection from Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection following RTS,S/AS01 vaccination. Vaccine. 38(47) 7498–7507. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.09.069.

SherrardSmith E^, Hogan AB^, Hamlet A^, Watson OJ^, Whittaker C^ et al (2020). The potential public health consequences of COVID19 on malaria in Africa. Nature Medicine. 26 1411–1416. DOI: 10.1038/s415910201025y.

Hogan AB^, Jewell BL^, SherrardSmith E^, Vesga JF^, Watson OJ^, Whittaker C^ et al (2020) Potential impact of the COVID19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in lowincome and middleincome countries: a modelling study. The Lancet Global Health. DOI: 10.1016/S2214109X(20)302886.
^contributed equally
Also available as a Biomedical Science Journal for Kids and Teens article. 
Hogan AB, Winskill P, Verity R, Griffin JT & Ghani AC (2018) Modelling populationlevel impact to inform target product profiles for childhood malaria vaccines. BMC Medicine. 16(109). 111. DOI: 10.1186/s1291601810956.

Hogan AB, Campbell PT, Blyth CC, Lim FJ, Fathima P, Davis S, Moore HC & Glass K (2017) Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study. Vaccine. 35 6172–6179. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.09.043.

Hogan AB & Myerscough MR (2017) A model for the spread of an invasive weed, Tradescantia fluminensis. The Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 117. DOI: 10.1007/s1153801702807.

Smith RJ, Hogan AB & Mercer GN (2017) Unexpected infection spikes in a model of respiratory syncytial virus vaccination. Vaccines. 5(12) 115. DOI: 10.3390/vaccines5020012.

Hogan AB, Glass K Anderssen RS (2017) Complex demodulation: a novel time series analysis method for seasonal infectious diseases. The ANZIAM Journal. DOI: 10.1017/S1446181116000377.

Hogan AB, Anderssen RS, Davis S, Moore HC, Lim FJ, Fathima P & Glass K (2016) Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia. Epidemics. 16 4955. DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.001.

Hogan AB, Glass K, Moore HC & Anderssen RS (2016) Exploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children. Theoretical Population Biology. 110 7885. DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2016.04.003.

Hogan AB, Glass K, Moore HC & Anderssen RS (2015) Age structures in mathematical models for infectious diseases, with a case study of respiratory syncytial virus. Proceedings of the Forum of Mathematics for Industry 2014. Springer. 105116. DOI: 10.1007/9784431553427.

Moore HC, Jacoby P, Hogan AB, Blyth CC & Mercer GN (2014) Modelling the seasonal epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus in young children. PLOS ONE. 9(6) e100422. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0100422.

Hogan AB, Mercer GN, Glass K & Moore HC (2013) Modelling the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus in young children. Proceedings of the 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Adelaide, Australia, pp 338344. ISBN 9780987214324.
Reports

Ferguson NM, Ghani AC, Cori A, Hogan AB, Hinsley W, Volz E (2021) Report 49: Growth, population distribution and immune escape of Omicron in England. Imperial College London (16122021). DOI: 10.25561/93038.

Hogan AB, Wu SL, Doohan P, Watson OJ, Winskill P, Charles G, Barnsley G, Riley EM, Khoury DS, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC (2021) Report 48: The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARSCoV2 variant. Imperial College London (16122021). DOI: 10.25561/93034.

Sonabend R, Whittles LK, …, Hogan AB, … Ferguson NM (2021). Evaluating the Roadmap out of Lockdown: Step 3. Report to the UK Government. Available here.

OliveraMesa D, Hogan AB, Watson OJ, Charles GD, Hauck K, Ghani AC, Winskill P (2021) Report 43: Quantifying the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for NonPharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID19 pandemic. Imperial College London (). DOI: 10.25561/87096 .

Hogan AB^, Winskill P^, Watson OJ, et al (2020) Report 33: Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID19 vaccine. Imperial College London (25092020). DOI: 10.25561/82822. ^contributed equally

Hogan AB^, Jewell BL^, SherrardSmith E^, Vesga JF^, Watson OJ^, Whittaker C^ et al (2020) Report 19: The Potential Impact of the COVID19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low and MiddleIncome Countries. Imperial College London (01052020). DOI: 10.25561/78670.
^contributed equally 
SherrardSmith E^, Hogan AB^, Hamlet A^, Watson OJ^, Whittaker C^ et al (2020) Report 18: The potential public health impact of COVID19 on malaria in Africa. Imperial College London (01052020). DOI: 10.25561/78668.
^contributed equally 
Wakayama M, Hogan AB & Anderssen RS (2015) The formation and launch of the Asia Pacific Consortium of Mathematics for Industry (APCMfI). Proceedings of the Forum of Mathematics for Industry 2014. Springer. 143147. DOI: 10.1007/9784431553427.
Edited volumes
Zapasnik J & Hogan AB (editors) (2014) The ANU Undergraduate Research Journal. Volume 6. ANU Press, Canberra. ISSN (online): 18372872.
Thesis
Hogan AB (2017), Mathematical models for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission. PhD thesis, Australian National University. DOI: 10.25911/5d70ec93b3047.
Code
Code is available via GitHub. All code is open source and licensed under the MIT License.
Outreach and other work
Featured in Cosmos magazine’s article “Born to Ruler?” (December 2023 issue).
Invited talks for undergraduate and high school maths and science students.
Working Group for the Effects of COVID19 on HIV, TB and Malaria (2020) What is the impact of COVID19 on other diseases? Biomedical Science Journal for Kids and Teens. Available at https://sciencejournalforkids.org/articles/whatistheimpactofcovid19onotherdiseases/.
My video for Women in Mathematics Day 2020, for the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS). A compilation of messages from many women in mathematics is here.
Blog post for the Thesis Whisperer, published in May 2017
https://thesiswhisperer.com/2017/05/24/makingthemostofyourconferencemoney/